Forecast · General election 2026
Where the next election will be decided
The next general election must be held by 30 November 2027✱ (Five years from the first sitting on 31 August 2022 (Wikipedia), plus 90 days. The first sitting needs confirming from the House Hansard.), and the Prime Minister is due to announce the date on 4 October 2026 (NOW Grenada, 26 Sep 2026). These tools use only past official results. Treat them as a range of possibilities, not a prediction.
- NDC two-party share, 2022
- 52.0%
- the national starting point
- Typical national swing
- ±12.9
- points between elections, 1990–2022 (largest 18)
- Typical local deviation
- ±4.1
- points from the national swing since 2008 (±7.0 over 1990–2022)
- Seats within 5 points of even
- 9
- of 15, by the Lean Index
1 · Grenada Lean Index
How much more NDC or NNP each place votes than Grenada as a whole: the NDC–NNP vote in 2022 (75%) and 2018 (25%), relative to the nation. NNP+7 means the NNP’s two-party share there ran about 7 points above its national share. The method follows the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index.
Constituencies in order of lean
The rule above the eighth marks the median seat: a party that wins it and every seat on its side has a majority. Squares show the 2022 winner.
- JSt. George NWSt. George North WestNNP+26
- NSt. MarkSt. MarkNNP+12
- GTown of St. GeorgeTown of St. GeorgeNNP+7
- BSt. Andrew SESt. Andrew South EastNNP+6
- DSt. Andrew NESt. Andrew North EastNNP+4
- ESt. Andrew NWSt. Andrew North WestNNP+2
- MSt. JohnSt. JohnNNP+1
- PSt. Patrick EastSt. Patrick EastNDC+1
- ACarriacou & PMCarriacou & Petite MartiniqueNDC+2
- RSt. Patrick WestSt. Patrick WestNDC+2
- KSt. George SESt. George South EastNDC+3
- CSt. Andrew SWSt. Andrew South WestNDC+3
- LSt. George SouthSt. George SouthNDC+5
- HSt. George NESt. George North EastNDC+8
- FSt. DavidSt. DavidNDC+9
Polling divisions closest to even
| Division | Constituency | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| E03 Byelands R. C. School | St. Andrew NW | EVEN |
| F10 Pomme Rose R. C. School | St. David | EVEN |
| C05 Mr. Cuthbert Alexis’ Shop, Richmond | St. Andrew SW | EVEN |
| M07 Florida Government School | St. John | EVEN |
| R02 Mt. Rich Pre Primary School | St. Patrick West | EVEN |
| D06 Upper St. John Community Centre | St. Andrew NE | EVEN |
| K02 Springs Open Bible Church | St. George SE | NNP+1 |
| A03 Dover Government School | Carriacou & PM | NDC+1 |
| A10 Harvey Vale Government School | Carriacou & PM | NNP+1 |
| B06 St. Giles Anglican School | St. Andrew SE | NNP+1 |
| H01 Vendome R.C. School | St. George NE | NDC+1 |
| G01 Magistrate’s Court #1 | Town of St. George | NDC+1 |
2 · Seat ratings and the range of outcomes
Each seat is rated by its chance of going NDC, NNP or DPM if the national vote is at the level you set, allowing for how much seats usually differ from the national swing. This follows the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, but calculated rather than judged.
Seat ratings
With these settings, 10 seats lean or better to the NDC, 4 to the NNP, and 1 is a toss-up (St. Andrew NW). Expected seats: NDC 9.7, NNP 5.3.
Safe NNP2
Likely NNP0
Toss-up1
Likely NDC4
The percentage is the chance the seat goes to that column’s party, allowing a typical local deviation of ±4.1 points from the national swing, as in the three elections since 2008. Safe: 95% or more. Likely: 80–95%. Lean: 60–80%. Toss-up: under 60% for the leader. +DPM marks the 10 seats where the Democratic People’s Movement has a candidate.
The range of outcomes
10,000 simulated elections. Each draws a national swing like those Grenada has seen (±12.9 points, with fat tails, since there have been only seven), then gives every seat its own local variation.
In 8 of 10 simulations the NDC won between 0 and 14 seats. Out of every 100: NDC majority 57, NNP majority 43, no majority 0. The DPM won at least one seat in 0.
Which seat decides it
The tipping-point seat gives the winner its eighth seat.
- P · St. Patrick East11% · NDC+1
- A · Carriacou & PM11% · NDC+2
- M · St. John11% · NNP+1
- R · St. Patrick West10% · NDC+2
- G · Town of St. George10% · NNP+7
- K · St. George SE9% · NDC+3
- E · St. Andrew NW9% · NNP+2
- C · St. Andrew SW8% · NDC+3
3 · Would this have worked before?
The same method run from each past election to the next, without using the result it was predicting. Each bar is the 80% range of NDC seats the method gave; the dot is what happened. Seats are counted by who led between the NDC and the NNP.
- Result inside the 80% range
- 5 of 7
- elections, 1995–2022
- Seats called correctly
- 85 of 105
- when the national vote is known
- Brier score
- 0.146
- lower is better; a coin flip scores 0.250
Are the seat chances honest?
If well calibrated, seats given about 70% should go NDC about 70% of the time.
| NDC chance | Seats | Average | NDC led |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 29 | 3% | 0% |
| 10–30% | 25 | 19% | 8% |
| 30–50% | 9 | 39% | 33% |
| 50–70% | 16 | 59% | 63% |
| 70–90% | 15 | 81% | 67% |
| 90–100% | 11 | 96% | 64% |
4 · Make your own map
5 · Election night, replayed: 2022
Replay the 2022 count one polling division at a time. After each division, the estimate compares it with how that division voted in 2018, works out the swing, projects the divisions still to come and simulates the result, as the New York Times “needle” does. Watch how early the answer becomes clear.
- Reported
- 0 of 132
- 0% of the NDC–NNP vote
- Swing since 2018
- +0.0
- points toward the NDC, ±12.9
- Projected NDC seats
- 1
- 80% range 0–12
Colour strength shows each seat’s projected chance. Outlined seats are called at 99%.
The counting order is simulated✱ (The real 2022 order in which divisions reported has not been published.). Results are the official 2022 division totals.
6 · Polls
Every published Grenada poll we could find with party figures, compared with the result that followed. Shares are of all respondents, as published; the comparison uses each party’s share of the NDC–NNP vote.
How the polls did
Open dot: the poll’s NDC share of the NDC–NNP vote. Filled dot: the result.
All 4 polls we can check understated the NDC, by 7.0 points on average. Only two pollsters and two elections are involved, so this is a warning, not a correction factor. DPB Global’s estimated party bases imply about 43% for the NDC in the NDC–NNP vote✱✱ (Only estimated party bases were published; the poll is under scrutiny.).
What we still need
- DPB Global’s full 2026 report: party shares, questionnaire, sample design and fieldwork dates.
- CADRES’s Grenada poll archive, including the original June 2008 release and any polls from 2012–2022.
- Public announcements corroborating the owner-confirmed NDC candidate names.
- The NNP candidate for St. Andrew North West.
- House of Representatives Hansard for 31 August 2022, which confirms the first sitting and so the deadline.
- Any poll that measures DPM support. The DPM settings above are assumptions until then.
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Published | Sample | NNP | NDC | Notes | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPB Global, Town of St. George seat✱ (A candidate-preference poll for one seat. We haven’t found any results.) | Planned Feb–Mar 2025 | – | 1,300 | – | – | A candidate-preference poll for one seat. We haven’t found any results. | The New Today, 22 Feb 2025 |
| DPB Global (Dr Justine Pierre)✱✱ (Only estimated voter numbers were published: NNP about 30,000, NDC 22,000–24,000, undecided 5,000–7,000. It says the NDC led by 12 points on 1 Dec 2025. Newspaper reports say the poll is under scrutiny.) | About Apr 2026 | 25 April 2026 | 4,142 | 9 seats | 6 seats | Only estimated voter numbers were published: NNP about 30,000, NDC 22,000–24,000, undecided 5,000–7,000. It says the NDC led by 12 points on 1 Dec 2025. Newspaper reports say the poll is under scrutiny. | The New Today, 25 Apr 2026 |
| CADRES | Jan 2017 | 10 March 2017 | Not stated | 40% | 18% | Taken 14 months before the March 2018 election. | NOW Grenada, 10 Mar 2017 |
| NACTA✱✱ (Said the NNP led in 9 seats; it won 4. A later letter from the same pollster (3 Feb 2010) gives the national figures as 52–46, which doesn’t match this published 51–41.) | Late Jun–early Jul 2008 | 4 July 2008 | 2,100 | 51% | 41% | Said the NNP led in 9 seats; it won 4. A later letter from the same pollster (3 Feb 2010) gives the national figures as 52–46, which doesn’t match this published 51–41. | Stabroek News letter, 4 Jul 2008 |
| CADRES✱ (Sourced through Wikipedia and Angus Reid; we haven’t found the original CADRES release.) | 6–9 Jun 2008 | 29 June 2008 | Not stated | 36.4% | 32.3% | Sourced through Wikipedia and Angus Reid; we haven’t found the original CADRES release. | Wikipedia: 2008 election (citing Angus Reid Global Monitor, 29 Jun 2008) |
| NACTA✱ (An earlier poll, mentioned in the same letter. The fieldwork dates and sample size weren’t published.) | May 2008 | 4 July 2008 | Not stated | 49% | 40% | An earlier poll, mentioned in the same letter. The fieldwork dates and sample size weren’t published. | Stabroek News letter, 4 Jul 2008 |
7 · Do candidates matter?
For every NDC and NNP candidate since 1995, their result compared with what the national vote and the constituency’s lean predicted. A positive number means they ran ahead of their party. It includes the effect of their opponent, so treat single races with care.
- Sitting MP ran again
- −1.3
- points for their party, 66 races
- Seat left open
- −1.5
- points for the party that held it, 26 races
- Incumbency effect
- +0.2
- points: almost none. Grenadians vote for the party more than the MP
- Typical candidate effect
- ±7.8
- points in a single race (NDC–NNP, 1995–2022)
Ran furthest ahead of their party
Average over at least two races in the same constituency
- Henry De AllieSt. Mark · NDC · 1995, 1999+14.6
- Elvin NimrodCarriacou & PM · NNP · 1999, 2003, 2008, 2013+11.2
- Michael ChurchSt. John · NDC · 2003, 2008+7.5
- Livingston NelsonSt. Andrew NE · NDC · 1995, 1999+5.7
- Ingrid JacksonSt. George NW · NDC · 1999, 2008+5.2
- Augustine JohnSt. George NE · NNP · 1999, 2003+4.9
- Glynis RobertsSt. George South · NDC · 2003, 2008+4.5
- Gregory BowenSt. George SE · NNP · 1995, 2003, 2008+4.4
Ran furthest behind
Average over at least two races in the same constituency
- George W. PrimeCarriacou & PM · NDC · 2003, 2008−12.3
- Osborne JamesSt. Mark · NDC · 2003, 2008−9.8
- Joan PurcellCarriacou & PM · NDC · 1995, 1999−9.5
- Oliver ArchibaldSt. Andrew NE · NNP · 1995, 1999−5.7
- Ann-David AntoineSt. George South · NNP · 2003, 2008−4.5
- Claudette JosephTown of St. George · NDC · 2018, 2022−3.9
- Dr. Keith MitchellSt. George NW · NNP · 1995, 1999, 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018, 2022−3.7
- Osbert CharlesSt. Andrew SW · NDC · 1999, 2003−3.5
Town of St. George: one MP, two parties
Dot colour shows the winning party; outlined dots are Peter David. The seat leaned NDC+4 with him as the NDC candidate in 2008 and NNP+8 with him as the NNP candidate in 2018, so about 12 points moved with him. That is a rare personal vote in a system where most MPs add almost nothing. How many of those voters follow him to the DPM is the biggest local question of 2026.
Changes to the model
- 27 September 2026Model v0.2: DPM addedThe DPM is standing in 8 seats, so seat chances are now three-way. The DPM’s size and which party it draws from are assumptions ✱ until a poll or result gives them. National swing now has fatter tails and local noise uses the three elections since 2008, both chosen by backtest.
- 27 September 2026First ratings publishedCalculated from the 2018 and 2022 official results, with the national vote as in 2022.